Arkansas vs Missouri Prediction: Will Missouri Cover -10?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Missouri -11.5 for Missouri at Arkansas, 1.5 points off the market’s Missouri -10, and gives Missouri a 77% win probability.
What this tells us
My model is more bullish on Missouri than the market is. I have them winning by 12 points with a 77% win probability, while the market has them favored by 10. Both sides agree Missouri wins, just not by how much.
The matchup
Offense
Defense
About this gap
Games with a gap under 3 points covered 51.4% of the time in the backtest (883 games).
this game
Dashed line: 50%. Solid line: 52.4%, break-even at -110. Backtest: every game, weeks 2+ of 2023–25. Games per row: 883, 616, 401, 181.
Line movement
Weather at kickoff
No significant weather expected.
Recent meetings Missouri leads 9–1 in the last 10 meetings
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Common questions
Who does the model project to win Arkansas vs Missouri?
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Missouri to win, with a 77% win probability.
What is the model’s predicted spread for Missouri at Arkansas?
The model projects Missouri -11.5 and the market has Missouri -10, a gap of 1.5 points.
What side does the model favor against the spread?
Missouri -10, at the current number. Backdoor Cover Picks may still pass on this game.
How the number is built
The model rates every FBS team on efficiency, adjusted for opponent, and refits every week. It predicts a score, which becomes a spread and a total. Backdoor Cover Picks are the few games I bet.
My track record starts with the 2026 season. Picks are posted before kickoff and graded once the game finishes.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Is Missouri at Arkansas one of my picks? Subscribers see whether I’m betting it, and if so the side, the line and a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.
