Arkansas Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Arkansas to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.9 expected wins. Up 0.5 wins from the preseason projection. Arkansas makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Arkansas a 0% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Arkansas games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Arkansas earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Arkansas. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs North AlabamaWon31-14 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at UtahLost10-43 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs GeorgiaLost17-45 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs TulsaWon34-6 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Texas A&MLost7-34 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs TennesseeLost17-24 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at VanderbiltWon31-21 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Missouri23% chance Arkansas wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Auburn25% chance Arkansas wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1432% chance Arkansas wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Texas7% chance Arkansas wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs LSU7% chance Arkansas wins
How many games Arkansas wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.4 in the preseason to 3.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.