How many games will Arkansas win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Arkansas is 2.8 wins.

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SEC · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Arkansas Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Arkansas's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Arkansas to finish 3-9 in 2026, about 2.8 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Arkansas to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 2.8 expected wins. That’s down 0.6 wins from our preseason number.

3-9

projected record

2.8 ▼0.6 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Arkansas to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 2.8 expected wins. The model gives Arkansas a 0% chance to win the SEC outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs North Alabama	93%
Wk 2	@ Utah	17%
Wk 3	vs Georgia	4%
Wk 4	vs Tulsa	88%
Wk 5	@ Texas A&M	2%
Wk 6	vs Tennessee	11%
Wk 7	@ Vanderbilt	16%
Wk 9	vs Missouri	24%
Wk 10	@ Auburn	12%
Wk 11	vs South Carolina	8%
Wk 12	@ Texas	4%
Wk 13	vs LSU	6%

Win-total distribution

1 wins

2 wins

34%

3 wins

36%

4 wins

18%

5 wins

6 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Arkansas has a 0% shot at the SEC title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Arkansas’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: SEC projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.