Duke Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Duke to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.2 expected wins. Up 0.3 wins from the preseason projection. Duke makes the 12-team Playoff in <1% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Duke a 0% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 2 of 6 Duke games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Duke earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Duke. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs TulaneWon17-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at IllinoisWon31-27 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs StanfordWon35-7 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs William & MaryWon62-7 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at Georgia TechLost25-28 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Lost20-24
- Week 8Fri Oct 23
at VirginiaWon19-16 - Week 9Sat Oct 3182% chance Duke wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at NC State48% chance Duke wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Miami8% chance Duke wins - Week 12Fri Nov 20
vs Clemson64% chance Duke wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Wake Forest14% chance Duke wins
How many games Duke wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.9 in the preseason to 7.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.