Wake Forest Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Wake Forest to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.2 expected wins. Up 5.1 wins from the preseason projection. Wake Forest makes the 12-team Playoff in 64% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Wake Forest a 22% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Wake Forest games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Wake Forest as the 8 seed, going out in the quarterfinals to 1-seed Ohio State (26% for Wake Forest in that game). Wake Forest earns a first-round bye in 17% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Wake Forest. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
vs AkronWon38-16 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at PurdueWon38-36 - Week 3Fri Sep 18
vs MiamiLost20-33 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at LouisvilleWon30-27 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs StanfordWon57-3 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at NC StateWon38-14 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at CaliforniaWon41-7 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Virginia91% chance Wake Forest wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Merrimack93% chance Wake Forest wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at SMU59% chance Wake Forest wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Georgia Tech91% chance Wake Forest wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Duke86% chance Wake Forest wins
How many games Wake Forest wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 10-2 (44% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.1 in the preseason to 10.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.