Stanford Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Stanford to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.6 expected wins. Up 0.9 wins from the preseason projection. Stanford makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Stanford a 0% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Stanford games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Stanford earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Stanford. Played games show the result.
- Week 1
vs Hawai'iWon6-45 - Week 1Fri Sep 4
vs MiamiLost6-45 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at DukeLost7-35 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Georgia TechWon34-27 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Wake ForestLost3-57 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at Notre DameLost7-58 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs ElonWon34-7 - Week 8Fri Oct 23
vs NC StateWon31-28 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Louisville3% chance Stanford wins - Week 11Sat Nov 149% chance Stanford wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at California38% chance Stanford wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs SMU8% chance Stanford wins
How many games Stanford wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (50% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.7 in the preseason to 4.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.