ACC Football 2026 Predictions
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Miami to win the ACC in 2026, at 69% to take the league.
Projected playoff teams: Miami, Wake Forest.
Projected title game
The two most likely participants
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Projected conference standings & title odds
Ordered by projected conference record. Beside Win conference, a green ▲ means the chance has gone up since my preseason projection and a red ▼ means it has gone down, in percentage points. Make playoff is the share of my simulated seasons in which the team makes the 12-team field.
Scroll the table sideways for every column.
| # | Team | Proj. record | Conf. record | Title game appearance | Win conference | Make playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11-1 | 9-0 | >99% | 69% | 94% | |
| 2 | 10-2 | 7-2 | 62% | 22%up 22 points since the preseason | 64% | |
| 3 | 9-3 | 7-2 | 35% | 8%down 7 points since the preseason | 13% | |
| 4 | 7-5 | 6-3 | 2% | <1%down 3 points since the preseason | <1% | |
| 5 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 6 | 8-4 | 5-4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 7 | 7-5 | 4-5 | <1% | 0% | <1% | |
| 8 | 6-6 | 4-4 | <1% | 0%down 8 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 9 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 0% | 0% | 1% | |
| 10 | 6-6 | 4-5 | 0% | 0%down 2 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 11 | 6-6 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 5-7 | 2-7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.