NC State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects NC State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. Down 1.4 wins from the preseason projection. NC State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives NC State a 0% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 NC State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
NC State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for NC State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Aug 29
at VirginiaLost8-34 - Week 2Fri Sep 11
vs RichmondWon73-0 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at VanderbiltLost31-35 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs App StateWon41-31 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs LouisvilleWon31-28 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Wake ForestLost14-38 - Week 8Fri Oct 23
at StanfordLost28-31 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs California87% chance NC State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Duke52% chance NC State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Syracuse66% chance NC State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2142% chance NC State wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 2837% chance NC State wins
How many games NC State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.2 in the preseason to 5.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.