Miami Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Miami to finish 11-1 in 2026, with 11.0 expected wins. Up 1.2 wins from the preseason projection. Miami makes the 12-team Playoff in 94% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Miami a 69% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Miami games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has Miami as the 2 seed with a first-round bye, going out in the semifinals to 11-seed Alabama (43% for Miami in that game). Miami earns a first-round bye in 61% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Miami. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
at StanfordWon45-6 - Week 2Thu Sep 10
vs Florida A&MWon77-7 - Week 3Fri Sep 18
at Wake ForestWon33-20 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won52-3
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at ClemsonWon41-13 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won43-35
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs PittsburghWon52-23 - Week 9Sat Oct 3184% chance Miami wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Notre Dame35% chance Miami wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Duke92% chance Miami wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2190% chance Miami wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 2897% chance Miami wins
How many games Miami wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 11-1 (54% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 9.8 in the preseason to 11.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.