Pac-12 Football 2026 Predictions
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Boise State to win the Pac-12 in 2026, at 49% to take the league.
Projected playoff team: Boise State.
Projected title game
The two most likely participants
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Projected conference standings & title odds
Ordered by projected conference record. Beside Win conference, a green ▲ means the chance has gone up since my preseason projection and a red ▼ means it has gone down, in percentage points. Make playoff is the share of my simulated seasons in which the team makes the 12-team field.
Scroll the table sideways for every column.
| # | Team | Proj. record | Conf. record | Title game appearance | Win conference | Make playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9-2 | 6-1 | 86% | 49%down 18 points since the preseason | 26% | |
| 2 | 8-3 | 6-1 | 75% | 35%up 34 points since the preseason | 2% | |
| 3 | 6-5 | 4-3 | 36% | 15%up 10 points since the preseason | <1% | |
| 4 | 6-5 | 3-4 | 1% | <1%down 3 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 5 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 1% | <1%down 22 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 6 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 4-7 | 2-5 | <1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.