Oregon State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Oregon State to finish 8-3 in 2026, with 7.7 expected wins. Up 2.4 wins from the preseason projection. Oregon State makes the 12-team Playoff in 2% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Oregon State a 35% chance to win the Pac-12 outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Oregon State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Oregon State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Oregon State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at HoustonLost20-33 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Texas TechLost24-35 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs MontanaWon52-17 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at UTEPWon33-7 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won56-26
- Week 6Sat Oct 10Won66-14
- Week 7Sat Oct 17Won48-30
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Fresno State75% chance Oregon State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Texas State59% chance Oregon State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Boise State43% chance Oregon State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Utah State88% chance Oregon State wins
How many games Oregon State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-3 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 11 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.3 in the preseason to 7.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.