San Diego State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects San Diego State to finish 4-7 in 2026, with 4.1 expected wins. Down 3.2 wins from the preseason projection. San Diego State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives San Diego State a <1% chance to win the Pac-12 outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 San Diego State games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
San Diego State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for San Diego State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Portland StateWon53-20 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at UCLALost10-28 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Lost13-26
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at ToledoLost16-41 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs Texas StateWon31-29 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at Oregon StateLost14-66 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs Fresno StateWon26-23 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost49-56
- Week 9Sat Oct 3155% chance San Diego State wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Utah State48% chance San Diego State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Boise State5% chance San Diego State wins
How many games San Diego State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-7 (49% of simulations). Regular season, 11 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.3 in the preseason to 4.1 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.