Colorado State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Colorado State to finish 4-7 in 2026, with 4.2 expected wins. Up 0.8 wins from the preseason projection. Colorado State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Colorado State a 0% chance to win the Pac-12 outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Colorado State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Colorado State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Colorado State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs WyomingWon35-13 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Southern UtahWon58-24 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs BYULost23-41 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at UTSALost45-59 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs Oregon StateLost26-56 - Week 7Thu Oct 15
at Texas StateLost27-66 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Won56-49
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Utah State39% chance Colorado State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Boise State7% chance Colorado State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1442% chance Colorado State wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Fresno State34% chance Colorado State wins
How many games Colorado State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-7 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 11 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.4 in the preseason to 4.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.