Utah State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Utah State to finish 4-7 in 2026, with 3.7 expected wins. Down 0.8 wins from the preseason projection. Utah State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Utah State a 0% chance to win the Pac-12 outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Utah State games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
Utah State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Utah State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Idaho StateLost17-29 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at WashingtonLost14-16 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at UtahLost0-33 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs TroyWon21-10 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Boise StateLost18-37 - Week 6Fri Oct 9Won17-16
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
at Texas StateLost17-20 - Week 9Sat Oct 3161% chance Utah State wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Fresno State43% chance Utah State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1452% chance Utah State wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Oregon State12% chance Utah State wins
How many games Utah State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-7 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 11 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.5 in the preseason to 3.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.