Fresno State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Fresno State to finish 6-5 in 2026, with 5.7 expected wins. Fresno State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Fresno State a <1% chance to win the Pac-12 outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Fresno State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Fresno State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Fresno State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
at USCLost0-39 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won49-3
- Week 3Sat Sep 19Won26-10
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs RiceWon38-24 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won26-6
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Boise StateLost31-38 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Lost23-26
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Oregon State25% chance Fresno State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Utah State57% chance Fresno State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Texas State18% chance Fresno State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2166% chance Fresno State wins
How many games Fresno State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-5 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 11 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.8 in the preseason to 5.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.