California Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects California to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 4.0 expected wins. Down 2.1 wins from the preseason projection. California makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives California a 0% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 2 of 7 California games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
California earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for California. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs UCLALost24-45 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at SyracuseWon21-18 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs WagnerWon49-7 - Week 4Fri Sep 25
vs ClemsonLost10-24 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at UNLVLost31-39 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Won25-20
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs Wake ForestLost7-41 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at SMULost20-59 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at NC State13% chance California wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Virginia14% chance California wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Stanford62% chance California wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Pittsburgh7% chance California wins
How many games California wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (53% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.1 in the preseason to 4.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.