SMU Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects SMU to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.0 expected wins. Up 0.2 wins from the preseason projection. SMU makes the 12-team Playoff in 13% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives SMU a 8% chance to win the ACC outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 SMU games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
SMU earns a first-round bye in 1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for SMU. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Mon Sep 7Won27-24
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs UC DavisWon56-10 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at LouisvilleLost31-41 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won34-24
- Week 5Sat Oct 3Won25-16
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs VirginiaWon23-13 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs CaliforniaWon59-20 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Syracuse80% chance SMU wins - Week 10Fri Nov 674% chance SMU wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Wake Forest41% chance SMU wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Notre Dame17% chance SMU wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Stanford92% chance SMU wins
How many games SMU wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (44% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.8 in the preseason to 9.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.