UCLA Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UCLA to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.4 expected wins. Up 5.0 wins from the preseason projection. UCLA makes the 12-team Playoff in 74% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives UCLA a 7% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 4 of 7 UCLA games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
My model’s projected bracket has UCLA as the 6 seed, going out in the first round to 11-seed Alabama (28% for UCLA in that game). UCLA earns a first-round bye in 21% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for UCLA. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at CaliforniaWon45-24 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won28-10
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs PurdueWon52-38 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at MarylandWon54-3 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at OregonWon17-15 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs WisconsinWon17-7 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Won28-10
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Nevada92% chance UCLA wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Minnesota84% chance UCLA wins - Week 11Fri Nov 13
vs Illinois68% chance UCLA wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Michigan41% chance UCLA wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs USC50% chance UCLA wins
How many games UCLA wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 10-2 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.4 in the preseason to 10.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.