UNLV Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UNLV to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.6 expected wins. Down 2.1 wins from the preseason projection. UNLV makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives UNLV a 2% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 3 of 7 UNLV games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
UNLV earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for UNLV. Played games show the result.
- Week 1
vs MemphisLost21-6 - Week 1Sat Sep 5
at Hawai'iWon21-6 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at North TexasLost6-44 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at AkronWon38-10 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs CaliforniaWon39-31 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Won13-7
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
at Air ForceLost31-41 - Week 9Sat Oct 3186% chance UNLV wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Wyoming58% chance UNLV wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at New Mexico10% chance UNLV wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2156% chance UNLV wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Nevada49% chance UNLV wins
How many games UNLV wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.7 in the preseason to 6.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.