New Mexico State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects New Mexico State to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.7 expected wins. Up 0.7 wins from the preseason projection. New Mexico State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives New Mexico State a 4% chance to win the Conference USA outright. The model has picked 7 of 7 New Mexico State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
New Mexico State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for New Mexico State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Lost17-34
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs MercyhurstWon51-14 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Hawai'iLost19-29 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs New MexicoLost18-42 - Week 5Thu Oct 1Won34-13
- Week 6Wed Oct 7Lost3-22
- Week 8Wed Oct 21
at Sam HoustonWon30-24 - Week 9Wed Oct 2841% chance New Mexico State wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Liberty31% chance New Mexico State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1469% chance New Mexico State wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Delaware66% chance New Mexico State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2865% chance New Mexico State wins
How many games New Mexico State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (35% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.0 in the preseason to 5.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.