Houston Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Houston to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 9.2 expected wins. Up 2.6 wins from the preseason projection. Houston makes the 12-team Playoff in 14% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Houston a 10% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 7 of 7 Houston games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Houston earns a first-round bye in <1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Houston. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Oregon StateWon33-20 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs SouthernWon77-6 - Week 3Fri Sep 18
at Texas TechLost26-28 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won42-28
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs UCFWon27-17 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at Kansas StateWon35-16 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won35-32
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
at UtahLost13-21 - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Cincinnati74% chance Houston wins - Week 11Fri Nov 13
at Colorado84% chance Houston wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2182% chance Houston wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Baylor79% chance Houston wins
How many games Houston wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.6 in the preseason to 9.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.