Big 12 Football 2026 Predictions
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Utah to win the Big 12 in 2026, at 58% to take the league.
Projected playoff teams: Utah, BYU.
Projected title game
The two most likely participants
Houston is close behind at 27% to reach the title game.
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Projected conference standings & title odds
Ordered by projected conference record. Beside Win conference, a green ▲ means the chance has gone up since my preseason projection and a red ▼ means it has gone down, in percentage points. Make playoff is the share of my simulated seasons in which the team makes the 12-team field.
Scroll the table sideways for every column.
| # | Team | Proj. record | Conf. record | Title game appearance | Win conference | Make playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11-1 | 8-1 | 89% | 58%up 56 points since the preseason | 79% | |
| 2 | 10-2 | 7-2 | 36% | 18%up 11 points since the preseason | 54% | |
| 3 | 9-3 | 6-3 | 27% | 10%up 10 points since the preseason | 14% | |
| 4 | 9-3 | 6-3 | 20% | 6%down 84 points since the preseason | 13% | |
| 5 | 8-4 | 6-3 | 16% | 5%up 5 points since the preseason | 6% | |
| 6 | 9-3 | 6-3 | 8% | 2% | 8% | |
| 7 | 8-4 | 6-3 | 3% | 1% | 1% | |
| 8 | 7-5 | 4-5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 9 | 6-6 | 4-5 | <1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 6-6 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 6-6 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 5-7 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 3-9 | 1-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.