Northwestern Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Northwestern to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.4 expected wins. Up 3.5 wins from the preseason projection. Northwestern makes the 12-team Playoff in 36% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Northwestern a <1% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Northwestern games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Northwestern earns a first-round bye in 5% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Northwestern. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs South Dakota StateWon34-18 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs ColoradoWon41-7 - Week 4Fri Sep 25
at IndianaLost23-29 - Week 5Fri Oct 2
vs Penn StateWon34-13 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Ball StateWon45-14 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Won24-21
- Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs RutgersWon42-14 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Oregon35% chance Northwestern wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Iowa54% chance Northwestern wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Ohio State12% chance Northwestern wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Minnesota73% chance Northwestern wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Illinois68% chance Northwestern wins
How many games Northwestern wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.9 in the preseason to 8.4 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.