How many games will Northwestern win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Northwestern is 5.7 wins.

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Big Ten · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Northwestern Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Northwestern's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Northwestern to finish 6-6 in 2026, about 5.7 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Northwestern to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.7 expected wins. That’s up 0.8 wins from our preseason number.

6-6

projected record

5.7 ▲0.8 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Northwestern to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.7 expected wins. The model gives Northwestern a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs South Dakota State	93%
Wk 3	vs Colorado	76%
Wk 4	@ Indiana	5%
Wk 5	vs Penn State	5%
Wk 6	vs Ball State	98%
Wk 7	@ Michigan State	81%
Wk 8	vs Rutgers	90%
Wk 9	@ Oregon	5%
Wk 10	vs Iowa	18%
Wk 11	@ Ohio State	4%
Wk 12	@ Minnesota	28%
Wk 13	vs Illinois	71%

Win-total distribution

3 wins

4 wins

11%

5 wins

28%

6 wins

36%

7 wins

19%

8 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Northwestern has a 0% shot at the Big Ten title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Northwestern’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: Big Ten projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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