Oklahoma State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Oklahoma State to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.3 expected wins. Up 2.5 wins from the preseason projection. Oklahoma State makes the 12-team Playoff in 6% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Oklahoma State a 5% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 2 of 6 Oklahoma State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Oklahoma State earns a first-round bye in <1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Oklahoma State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at TulsaLost10-24 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs OregonWon39-31 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs Murray StateWon59-0 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won41-24
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs UCFWon42-28 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at HoustonLost32-35 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs ColoradoWon57-24 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Iowa State71% chance Oklahoma State wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Kansas State63% chance Oklahoma State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Texas Tech56% chance Oklahoma State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2169% chance Oklahoma State wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Kansas76% chance Oklahoma State wins
How many games Oklahoma State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (33% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.8 in the preseason to 8.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.