Baylor Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Baylor to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. Up 0.4 wins from the preseason projection. Baylor makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Baylor a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Baylor games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Baylor earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Baylor. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
Lost16-17 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Prairie View A&MWon44-3 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won36-19
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs ColoradoWon23-13 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won55-19
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs TCULost6-17 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at KansasLost24-25 - Week 9Fri Oct 30
at UCF32% chance Baylor wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Iowa State74% chance Baylor wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at BYU12% chance Baylor wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Texas Tech42% chance Baylor wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Houston21% chance Baylor wins
How many games Baylor wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.4 in the preseason to 5.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.