How many games will Baylor win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Baylor is 5.8 wins.

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Big 12 · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Baylor Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Baylor's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Baylor to finish 6-6 in 2026, about 5.8 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Baylor to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. That’s up 0.4 wins from our preseason number.

0-1

record so far

6-6

projected record

5.8 ▲0.4 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Baylor to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.8 expected wins. The model gives Baylor a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright.

Model called 1 of 1 of Baylor’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	@ Auburn	Lost 16–17 ✓
Wk 2	vs Prairie View A&M	93%
Wk 3	vs Louisiana Tech	83%
Wk 4	vs Colorado	88%
Wk 5	@ Arizona State	26%
Wk 7	vs TCU	90%
Wk 8	@ Kansas	30%
Wk 9	@ UCF	34%
Wk 10	vs Iowa State	62%
Wk 11	@ BYU	16%
Wk 12	vs Texas Tech	11%
Wk 13	@ Houston	28%

Win-total distribution

3 wins

4 wins

12%

5 wins

25%

6 wins

28%

7 wins

20%

8 wins

9 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Baylor has a 0% shot at the Big 12 title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Baylor’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: Big 12 projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.