Maryland Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Maryland to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 3.0 expected wins. Down 3.0 wins from the preseason projection. Maryland makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Maryland a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Maryland games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Maryland earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Maryland. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs HamptonWon62-0 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at UConnWon38-14 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Lost26-35
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs UCLALost3-54 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at NebraskaLost23-48 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at Ohio StateLost16-45 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs RutgersLost30-37 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Illinois27% chance Maryland wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Purdue25% chance Maryland wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Wisconsin14% chance Maryland wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at USC15% chance Maryland wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Penn State20% chance Maryland wins
How many games Maryland wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 3-9 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.0 in the preseason to 3.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.