UConn Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UConn to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 6.6 expected wins. Up 1.9 wins from the preseason projection. UConn makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model has picked 4 of 6 UConn games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
UConn earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for UConn. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs LafayetteWon56-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs MarylandLost14-38 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won48-20
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Miami (OH)Lost21-24 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs SyracuseLost41-42 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at TempleWon34-20 - Week 8Fri Oct 23Won35-16
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Air Force46% chance UConn wins - Week 10Sat Nov 742% chance UConn wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1432% chance UConn wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Old Dominion83% chance UConn wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Wyoming55% chance UConn wins
How many games UConn wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (34% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.7 in the preseason to 6.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.