Purdue Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Purdue to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.6 expected wins. Up 1.7 wins from the preseason projection. Purdue makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Purdue a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Purdue games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Purdue earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Purdue. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
vs Indiana StateWon44-19 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Wake ForestLost36-38 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at UCLALost38-52 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Notre DameLost10-49 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at IllinoisWon24-17 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs MinnesotaWon41-13 - Week 7Fri Oct 16
vs WashingtonLost26-38 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Penn State26% chance Purdue wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Maryland75% chance Purdue wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Iowa24% chance Purdue wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Wisconsin34% chance Purdue wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at Indiana6% chance Purdue wins
How many games Purdue wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 2.9 in the preseason to 4.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.