Wisconsin Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Wisconsin to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.6 expected wins. Up 3.0 wins from the preseason projection. Wisconsin makes the 12-team Playoff in 18% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Wisconsin a 2% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Wisconsin games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
Wisconsin earns a first-round bye in 1% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Wisconsin. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sun Sep 6
Lost13-41 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Western IllinoisWon36-9 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won54-10
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Penn StateWon24-20 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won31-3
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
at UCLALost7-17 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
vs USCWon24-7 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Iowa44% chance Wisconsin wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Rutgers81% chance Wisconsin wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Maryland86% chance Wisconsin wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Purdue66% chance Wisconsin wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
vs Minnesota86% chance Wisconsin wins
How many games Wisconsin wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.6 in the preseason to 8.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.