Nebraska Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Nebraska to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.2 expected wins. Up 2.5 wins from the preseason projection. Nebraska makes the 12-team Playoff in 22% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Nebraska a <1% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 6 of 6 Nebraska games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Nebraska earns a first-round bye in 2% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Nebraska. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs OhioWon49-21 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won56-7
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs North DakotaWon34-7 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won31-13
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs MarylandWon48-23 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs IndianaLost17-20 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at OregonLost14-17 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Washington78% chance Nebraska wins - Week 10Fri Nov 6
at Illinois75% chance Nebraska wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Rutgers91% chance Nebraska wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Ohio State29% chance Nebraska wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Iowa46% chance Nebraska wins
How many games Nebraska wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (40% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.7 in the preseason to 8.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.