Rutgers Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Rutgers to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 2.9 expected wins. Down 2.0 wins from the preseason projection. Rutgers makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Rutgers a 0% chance to win the Big Ten outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 Rutgers games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Rutgers earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Rutgers. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3Lost21-37
- Week 2Fri Sep 11Lost21-28
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs USCLost35-42 - Week 4Fri Sep 25
vs HowardWon58-7 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs IndianaLost15-47 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at MarylandWon37-30 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at NorthwesternLost14-42 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Michigan11% chance Rutgers wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Wisconsin19% chance Rutgers wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Nebraska9% chance Rutgers wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Penn State16% chance Rutgers wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2836% chance Rutgers wins
How many games Rutgers wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 3-9 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.9 in the preseason to 2.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.