Big Ten Football 2026 Predictions
Backdoor Cover’s model projects Ohio State to win the Big Ten in 2026, at 57% to take the league.
Projected playoff teams: Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA.
Projected title game
The two most likely participants
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Projected conference standings & title odds
Ordered by projected conference record. Beside Win conference, a green ▲ means the chance has gone up since my preseason projection and a red ▼ means it has gone down, in percentage points. Make playoff is the share of my simulated seasons in which the team makes the 12-team field.
Scroll the table sideways for every column.
| # | Team | Proj. record | Conf. record | Title game appearance | Win conference | Make playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10-2 | 8-1 | 87% | 57%up 10 points since the preseason | 94% | |
| 2 | 10-2 | 7-2 | 68% | 34%up 26 points since the preseason | 92% | |
| 3 | 10-2 | 7-2 | 34% | 7%up 7 points since the preseason | 74% | |
| 4 | 9-3 | 7-2 | 7% | 2% | 18% | |
| 5 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 2% | <1% | 36% | |
| 6 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 1% | <1% | 22% | |
| 7 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 1% | <1% | 14% | |
| 8 | 7-5 | 5-4 | <1% | <1%down 44 points since the preseason | 6% | |
| 9 | 8-4 | 5-4 | <1% | <1% | 7% | |
| 10 | 7-5 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 7-5 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | |
| 12 | 6-6 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| 13 | 6-6 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| 14 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 6-6 | 3-6 | 0% | 0% | <1% | |
| 16 | 4-8 | 2-7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 3-9 | 1-8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.