Vanderbilt Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Vanderbilt to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.7 expected wins. Down 2.7 wins from the preseason projection. Vanderbilt makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Vanderbilt a 0% chance to win the SEC outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Vanderbilt games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Vanderbilt earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Vanderbilt. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Austin PeayWon28-9 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs DelawareWon35-26 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs NC StateWon35-31 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at AuburnLost15-21 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
at GeorgiaLost14-38 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Ole MissLost17-52 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs ArkansasLost21-31 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at KentuckyLost17-34 - Week 10Sat Nov 724% chance Vanderbilt wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Alabama8% chance Vanderbilt wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Florida11% chance Vanderbilt wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Tennessee31% chance Vanderbilt wins
How many games Vanderbilt wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 3-9 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 6.4 in the preseason to 3.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.