App State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects App State to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 8.1 expected wins. Up 2.4 wins from the preseason projection. App State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives App State a 6% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 App State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
App State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for App State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs MaineWon55-3 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won27-24
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs CharlotteWon26-21 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at NC StateLost31-41 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Old DominionLost3-10 - Week 7Fri Oct 16Won35-32
- Week 8Thu Oct 22Won34-31
- Week 9Sat Oct 3133% chance App State wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 754% chance App State wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Marshall68% chance App State wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs UL Monroe90% chance App State wins - Week 13Fri Nov 2768% chance App State wins
How many games App State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (38% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.7 in the preseason to 8.1 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.