Old Dominion Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Old Dominion to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.6 expected wins. Down 3.8 wins from the preseason projection. Old Dominion makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Old Dominion a 0% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Old Dominion games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Old Dominion earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Old Dominion. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs Norfolk StateWon31-10 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Lost21-44
- Week 3Sat Sep 19Lost17-20
- Week 4Sat Sep 26Lost20-46
- Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost10-42
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
at App StateWon10-3 - Week 7Thu Oct 15Lost15-23
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost0-26
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Marshall54% chance Old Dominion wins - Week 10Sat Nov 744% chance Old Dominion wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at UConn17% chance Old Dominion wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2850% chance Old Dominion wins
How many games Old Dominion wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.4 in the preseason to 3.6 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.