Marshall Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Marshall to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.7 expected wins. Down 1.6 wins from the preseason projection. Marshall makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Marshall a 0% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Marshall games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Marshall earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Marshall. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at Penn StateLost0-45 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won28-26
- Week 3Sat Sep 19Won30-24
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Gardner-WebbWon36-35 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost17-45
- Week 6Sat Oct 10Lost21-27
- Week 8Tue Oct 20Won20-13
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
at Old Dominion46% chance Marshall wins - Week 10Sat Nov 710% chance Marshall wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs App State32% chance Marshall wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2126% chance Marshall wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
at UL Monroe57% chance Marshall wins
How many games Marshall wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.3 in the preseason to 5.7 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.