James Madison Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects James Madison to finish 10-2 in 2026, with 10.3 expected wins. Up 0.6 wins from the preseason projection. James Madison makes the 12-team Playoff in 18% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives James Madison a 57% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 James Madison games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
James Madison earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for James Madison. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs LibertyWon20-13 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs WagnerWon87-3 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won26-13
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at Old DominionWon46-20 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs MarshallWon45-17 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Won27-24
- Week 7Sat Oct 17Won49-22
- Week 8Thu Oct 22
at App StateLost31-34 - Week 9Thu Oct 29
vs Troy89% chance James Madison wins - Week 10Thu Nov 584% chance James Madison wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 14
at UConn68% chance James Madison wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2893% chance James Madison wins
How many games James Madison wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 11-1 (47% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 9.7 in the preseason to 10.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.