How many games will Georgia State win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Georgia State is 2.6 wins.

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Sun Belt · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Georgia State Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Georgia State's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Georgia State to finish 3-9 in 2026, about 2.6 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Georgia State to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 2.6 expected wins. That’s up 0.5 wins from our preseason number.

3-9

projected record

2.6 ▲0.5 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Georgia State to finish 3-9 in 2026, with 2.6 expected wins. The model gives Georgia State a 0% chance to win the Sun Belt outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs North Carolina A&T	93%
Wk 2	@ Kennesaw State	5%
Wk 3	@ UCF	3%
Wk 4	vs Northern Illinois	63%
Wk 5	vs Old Dominion	7%
Wk 7	@ James Madison	6%
Wk 8	@ Arkansas State	20%
Wk 9	vs Coastal Carolina	17%
Wk 10	@ App State	6%
Wk 11	vs Georgia Southern	7%
Wk 12	@ Marshall	20%
Wk 13	vs Louisiana	8%

Win-total distribution

0 wins

1 wins

14%

2 wins

36%

3 wins

31%

4 wins

14%

5 wins

6 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Georgia State has a 0% shot at the Sun Belt title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Georgia State’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: Sun Belt projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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