Georgia State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Georgia State to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.0 expected wins. Up 4.9 wins from the preseason projection. Georgia State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Georgia State a <1% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Georgia State games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Georgia State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Georgia State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Fri Sep 4
vs North Carolina A&TWon59-10 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won31-17
- Week 3Sat Sep 19
at UCFLost30-44 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won35-14
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs Old DominionWon42-10 - Week 7Sat Oct 17Lost22-49
- Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost32-38
- Week 9Sat Oct 3176% chance Georgia State wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at App State46% chance Georgia State wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1454% chance Georgia State wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Marshall74% chance Georgia State wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Louisiana54% chance Georgia State wins
How many games Georgia State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (36% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 2.1 in the preseason to 7.0 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.