Coastal Carolina Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Coastal Carolina to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.5 expected wins. Down 2.0 wins from the preseason projection. Coastal Carolina makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Coastal Carolina a 0% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Coastal Carolina games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Coastal Carolina earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Coastal Carolina. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Lost24-31
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs FordhamWon45-7 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at DelawareLost14-22 - Week 4Thu Sep 24
vs LibertyLost17-34 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost24-31
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
at MarshallWon27-21 - Week 7Fri Oct 16
vs App StateLost32-35 - Week 9Sat Oct 3124% chance Coastal Carolina wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Old Dominion56% chance Coastal Carolina wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1447% chance Coastal Carolina wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Louisiana20% chance Coastal Carolina wins - Week 13Sat Nov 287% chance Coastal Carolina wins
How many games Coastal Carolina wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 3-9 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 5.5 in the preseason to 3.5 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.