Missouri State Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Missouri State to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.8 expected wins. Down 0.3 wins from the preseason projection. Missouri State makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Missouri State a 0% chance to win the Conference USA outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Missouri State games correctly this season.
Get Backdoor Cover Projections every Wednesday
It’s one email every Wednesday, after the model runs. You can unsubscribe any time.
Path to the title
Missouri State earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Missouri State. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at Texas A&MLost0-50 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs LindenwoodWon48-14 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs MarshallLost24-30 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at SMULost24-34 - Week 6Thu Oct 8Lost13-34
- Week 7Wed Oct 14Won24-21
- Week 8Tue Oct 20
at DelawareLost38-61 - Week 9Tue Oct 27
vs Sam HoustonWon24-3 - Week 10Sat Nov 731% chance Missouri State wins
- Week 11Sat Nov 1431% chance Missouri State wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 218% chance Missouri State wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Liberty7% chance Missouri State wins
How many games Missouri State wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (43% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.1 in the preseason to 3.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.