Hawai'i Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Hawai'i to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.8 expected wins. Down 3.6 wins from the preseason projection. Hawai'i makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Hawai'i a 0% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 7 of 8 Hawai'i games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Hawai'i earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Hawai'i. Played games show the result.
- Week 1
at StanfordLost6-21 - Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs UNLVLost6-21 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Won29-19
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at WyomingLost10-27 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost16-20
- Week 6Sat Oct 10Lost12-30
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs New MexicoLost10-21 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Won56-21
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
at UTEP60% chance Hawai'i wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1435% chance Hawai'i wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Nevada19% chance Hawai'i wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2870% chance Hawai'i wins
How many games Hawai'i wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 4-8 (42% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.4 in the preseason to 3.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.