TCU Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects TCU to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 5.2 expected wins. Down 2.2 wins from the preseason projection. TCU makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives TCU a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 3 of 6 TCU games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
TCU earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for TCU. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Aug 29
Lost10-15 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs GramblingWon63-7 - Week 3Sat Sep 19Won31-7
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at UCFLost13-21 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs BYULost10-17 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at BaylorWon17-6 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost20-24
- Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs Kansas61% chance TCU wins - Week 10Fri Nov 6
at Arizona33% chance TCU wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Kansas State71% chance TCU wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Utah32% chance TCU wins - Week 13Thu Nov 26
at Texas Tech27% chance TCU wins
How many games TCU wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 5-7 (37% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.4 in the preseason to 5.2 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.