West Virginia Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects West Virginia to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.9 expected wins. Up 1.4 wins from the preseason projection. West Virginia makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives West Virginia a 0% chance to win the Big 12 outright. The model has picked 2 of 7 West Virginia games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
West Virginia earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for West Virginia. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5Won31-24
- Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs UT MartinWon52-7 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
Won38-27 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Lost24-41
- Week 5Sat Oct 3
at Iowa StateLost42-45 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs ArizonaLost31-52 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs CincinnatiWon45-42 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at TCUWon24-20 - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Texas Tech24% chance West Virginia wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
vs Kansas46% chance West Virginia wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs Houston18% chance West Virginia wins - Week 13Fri Nov 27
at Utah6% chance West Virginia wins
How many games West Virginia wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (46% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.5 in the preseason to 5.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.