What is UAB's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects UAB to finish 4-8 in 2026, about 3.7 expected wins.

How many games will UAB win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for UAB is 3.7 wins.

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American Athletic · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

UAB Football 2026 Season Prediction

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UAB to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.7 expected wins. That’s down 0.2 wins from our preseason number.

0-1

record so far

4-8

projected record

3.7 ▼0.2 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects UAB to finish 4-8 in 2026, with 3.7 expected wins. The model gives UAB a 0% chance to win the American Athletic outright.

Model called 1 of 1 of UAB’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	@ Illinois	Lost 23–42 ✓
Wk 2	vs UL Monroe	98%
Wk 3	@ Louisiana	4%
Wk 4	vs Navy	1%
Wk 5	vs Samford	93%
Wk 6	@ Memphis	5%
Wk 7	vs East Carolina	20%
Wk 9	@ South Florida	27%
Wk 10	vs Charlotte	90%
Wk 11	@ Temple	11%
Wk 12	vs UTSA	2%
Wk 13	@ North Texas	19%

Win-total distribution

2 wins

3 wins

37%

4 wins

37%

5 wins

16%

6 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. UAB has a 0% shot at the American Athletic title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

UAB’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: American Athletic projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.