UAB Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects UAB to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.9 expected wins. Up 2.0 wins from the preseason projection. UAB makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives UAB a <1% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 UAB games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
UAB earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for UAB. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
at IllinoisLost23-42 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs UL MonroeWon26-20 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at LouisianaLost14-21 - Week 4Fri Sep 25
vs NavyWon24-20 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs SamfordWon33-14 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at MemphisLost13-38 - Week 7Thu Oct 15Won30-17
- Week 9Sat Oct 3113% chance UAB wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Charlotte81% chance UAB wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at Temple45% chance UAB wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
vs UTSA36% chance UAB wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at North Texas9% chance UAB wins
How many games UAB wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 3.9 in the preseason to 5.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.