How many games will North Texas win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for North Texas is 4.7 wins.

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American Athletic · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

North Texas Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is North Texas's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects North Texas to finish 5-7 in 2026, about 4.7 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects North Texas to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.7 expected wins. That’s down 0.2 wins from our preseason number.

0-1

record so far

5-7

projected record

4.7 ▼0.2 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects North Texas to finish 5-7 in 2026, with 4.7 expected wins. The model gives North Texas a 0% chance to win the American Athletic outright.

Model called 1 of 1 of North Texas’s games right so far this season.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	@ Indiana	Lost 16–52 ✓
Wk 2	vs UNLV	6%
Wk 3	@ Texas State	25%
Wk 4	vs Houston Christian	93%
Wk 5	@ Tulsa	5%
Wk 6	vs Charlotte	88%
Wk 8	@ Navy	11%
Wk 9	vs Florida Atlantic	77%
Wk 10	vs Rice	56%
Wk 11	@ UTSA	4%
Wk 12	@ Tulane	21%
Wk 13	vs UAB	81%

Win-total distribution

2 wins

3 wins

12%

4 wins

29%

5 wins

33%

6 wins

18%

7 wins

8 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. North Texas has a 0% shot at the American Athletic title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

North Texas’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

71.6% on the filtered picks

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More: American Athletic projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

Projections are model output for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not betting advice. You must be 21 or older, or the legal age where you are. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.