North Texas Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects North Texas to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.9 expected wins. Up 4.0 wins from the preseason projection. North Texas makes the 12-team Playoff in 17% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives North Texas a 65% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 North Texas games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
North Texas earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for North Texas. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at IndianaLost16-52 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs UNLVWon44-6 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at Texas StateLost35-49 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs Houston ChristianWon63-14 - Week 5Thu Oct 1
at TulsaWon45-44 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs CharlotteWon50-10 - Week 8Sat Oct 24
at NavyWon49-39 - Week 9Thu Oct 2990% chance North Texas wins
- Week 10Sat Nov 7
vs Rice90% chance North Texas wins - Week 11Sat Nov 14
at UTSA56% chance North Texas wins - Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Tulane68% chance North Texas wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs UAB91% chance North Texas wins
How many games North Texas wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 9-3 (44% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 4.9 in the preseason to 8.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.