Louisiana Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Louisiana to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 7.8 expected wins. Up 0.4 wins from the preseason projection. Louisiana makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Louisiana a 2% chance to win the Sun Belt outright. The model has picked 6 of 7 Louisiana games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Louisiana earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Louisiana. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs LamarWon38-7 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at USCLost30-49 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs UABWon21-14 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
at CharlotteWon34-7 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Won23-20
- Week 6Sat Oct 10Lost31-32
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs TroyWon33-6 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Lost31-35
- Week 10Sat Nov 776% chance Louisiana wins
- Week 11Thu Nov 12
at UL Monroe82% chance Louisiana wins - Week 12Sat Nov 2180% chance Louisiana wins
- Week 13Sat Nov 2846% chance Louisiana wins
How many games Louisiana wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (45% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.4 in the preseason to 7.8 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.