Charlotte Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Charlotte to finish 2-10 in 2026, with 1.9 expected wins. Up 0.4 wins from the preseason projection. Charlotte makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Charlotte a 0% chance to win the American Athletic outright. The model has picked 5 of 6 Charlotte games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Charlotte earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Charlotte. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs The CitadelLost41-43 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
at Ole MissLost9-41 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at App StateLost21-26 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs LouisianaLost7-34 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs MemphisLost8-59 - Week 6Sat Oct 10
at North TexasLost10-50 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at TempleWon38-31 - Week 9Fri Oct 30
vs Tulane22% chance Charlotte wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at UAB19% chance Charlotte wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1426% chance Charlotte wins
- Week 12Sat Nov 21
at Tulsa4% chance Charlotte wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
vs Navy15% chance Charlotte wins
How many games Charlotte wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 2-10 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 1.5 in the preseason to 1.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.