American Athletic Football 2026 Predictions
Backdoor Cover’s model projects North Texas to win the American Athletic in 2026, at 65% to take the league.
No projected playoff team from this conference yet.
Projected title game
The two most likely participants
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Projected conference standings & title odds
Ordered by projected conference record. Beside Win conference, a green ▲ means the chance has gone up since my preseason projection and a red ▼ means it has gone down, in percentage points. Make playoff is the share of my simulated seasons in which the team makes the 12-team field.
Scroll the table sideways for every column.
| # | Team | Proj. record | Conf. record | Title game appearance | Win conference | Make playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9-3 | 7-1 | 91% | 65%up 65 points since the preseason | 17% | |
| 2 | 9-3 | 6-2 | 46% | 14%up 7 points since the preseason | 19% | |
| 3 | 8-4 | 6-3 | 26% | 9%up 5 points since the preseason | <1% | |
| 4 | 8-4 | 5-3 | 27% | 9%down 2 points since the preseason | <1% | |
| 5 | 8-4 | 4-4 | 8% | 2%down 17 points since the preseason | <1% | |
| 6 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 1% | <1% | 0% | |
| 7 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 1% | <1%down 28 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 8 | 7-5 | 4-4 | <1% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0% | 0%down 21 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 10 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 1% | <1% | <1% | |
| 11 | 5-7 | 3-5 | <1% | <1%down 7 points since the preseason | 0% | |
| 12 | 4-8 | 3-5 | <1% | <1% | 0% | |
| 13 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.