How many games will Air Force win in 2026?

The model's expected win total for Air Force is 8.9 wins.

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Mountain West · 2026 outlook · updated Sep 8, 2026

Air Force Football 2026 Season Prediction

Q: What is Air Force's projected record for 2026?

Backdoor Cover's statistical model projects Air Force to finish 9-3 in 2026, about 8.9 expected wins.

Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Air Force to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.9 expected wins. That’s up 1.4 wins from our preseason number.

9-3

projected record

8.9 ▲1.4 vs preseason

win total (expected wins)

Our statistical model projects Air Force to finish 9-3 in 2026, with 8.9 expected wins. The model gives Air Force a 22% chance to win the Mountain West outright.

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Game-by-game

Played games show the result and whether the model called it (✓/✗). Upcoming games show win probability.

Week	Opponent	Result / win prob
Wk 1	vs Duquesne	93%
Wk 2	vs North Dakota State	80%
Wk 4	@ Nevada	76%
Wk 5	vs Navy	59%
Wk 6	@ Northern Illinois	91%
Wk 7	vs UNLV	81%
Wk 8	@ Wyoming	94%
Wk 9	vs UConn	84%
Wk 10	@ Army	27%
Wk 11	vs San José State	92%
Wk 12	vs UTEP	98%
Wk 13	@ New Mexico	17%

Win-total distribution

6 wins

7 wins

8 wins

23%

9 wins

32%

10 wins

24%

11 wins

12 wins

What subscribers get

Everything above is the free model. Air Force has a 60% shot at the Mountain West title game in the model. Subscribers get the full picture — and the picks we actually bet.

This week’s picks

Our actual bet card — every spread and underdog, with the unit size we’re using.

The full interactive projections

Air Force’s conference title odds, the projected 12-team playoff bracket, and week-by-week movement.

Full prediction exports

Every game’s projected spread and win probability, downloadable as a CSV.

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The record you’re buying into

53–21

ATS since Week 8, 2025

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More: Mountain West projections · all 2026 team predictions · this week’s games · track record

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