Air Force Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Air Force to finish 8-4 in 2026, with 7.9 expected wins. Up 0.4 wins from the preseason projection. Air Force makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Air Force a 5% chance to win the Mountain West outright. The model has picked 4 of 6 Air Force games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Air Force earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Air Force. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
vs DuquesneWon34-0 - Week 2Sat Sep 12Lost32-38
- Week 4Sat Sep 26
at NevadaWon36-33 - Week 5Sat Oct 3
vs NavyWon14-9 - Week 6Sat Oct 10Won28-7
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs UNLVWon41-31 - Week 8Fri Oct 23
at WyomingLost14-28 - Week 9Sat Oct 31
vs UConn54% chance Air Force wins - Week 10Sat Nov 7
at Army38% chance Air Force wins - Week 11Sat Nov 1485% chance Air Force wins
- Week 12Fri Nov 20
vs UTEP90% chance Air Force wins - Week 13Sat Nov 28
at New Mexico23% chance Air Force wins
How many games Air Force wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 8-4 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 7.5 in the preseason to 7.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.