Massachusetts Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Massachusetts to finish 6-6 in 2026, with 5.9 expected wins. Up 3.2 wins from the preseason projection. Massachusetts makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Massachusetts a 0% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 2 of 6 Massachusetts games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Massachusetts earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Massachusetts. Played games show the result.
- Week 1Thu Sep 3
at RutgersWon37-21 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Sacred HeartWon37-10 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
vs StonehillWon36-14 - Week 4Sat Sep 26Won35-6
- Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost14-38
- Week 6Sat Oct 10
vs Miami (OH)Lost19-20 - Week 7Sat Oct 17
at BuffaloLost18-25 - Week 8Fri Oct 23
at UConnLost16-35 - Week 10Wed Nov 4
vs Ball State56% chance Massachusetts wins - Week 11Wed Nov 11
at Toledo13% chance Massachusetts wins - Week 12Wed Nov 18
vs Akron64% chance Massachusetts wins - Week 13Sat Nov 2855% chance Massachusetts wins
How many games Massachusetts wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 6-6 (41% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 2.7 in the preseason to 5.9 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.