Miami (OH) Football 2026 Season Prediction
Backdoor Cover’s college football model projects Miami (OH) to finish 7-5 in 2026, with 7.3 expected wins. Down 1.0 wins from the preseason projection. Miami (OH) makes the 12-team Playoff in 0% of my simulated seasons.
The model gives Miami (OH) a 5% chance to win the Mid-American outright. The model has picked 5 of 7 Miami (OH) games correctly this season.
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Path to the title
Miami (OH) earns a first-round bye in 0% of simulations.
Game by game
Upcoming games show my model’s win probability for Miami (OH). Played games show the result.
- Week 1Sat Sep 5
at PittsburghLost14-59 - Week 2Sat Sep 12
vs Holy CrossWon45-7 - Week 3Sat Sep 19
at CincinnatiLost31-35 - Week 4Sat Sep 26
vs UConnWon24-21 - Week 5Sat Oct 3Lost20-24
- Week 6Sat Oct 10Won20-19
- Week 7Sat Oct 17
vs AkronWon34-14 - Week 8Sat Oct 24Won28-27
- Week 10Tue Nov 3
vs Buffalo80% chance Miami (OH) wins - Week 11Tue Nov 10
vs Ohio41% chance Miami (OH) wins - Week 12Tue Nov 17
at Kent State73% chance Miami (OH) wins - Week 13Tue Nov 2438% chance Miami (OH) wins
How many games Miami (OH) wins
Share of 4,000 simulated seasons ending on each regular-season win total.
Most likely: 7-5 (39% of simulations). Regular season, 12 games.
Expected wins since the preseason
From 8.3 in the preseason to 7.3 now.
How the model is doing. 232–205–7 against the spread (53.1%), 156–131 on totals (54.4%) and 317–127 straight up (71.4%) on every game this season, graded at DraftKings’ closing line.
Backdoor Cover Picks
Most weeks I bet a handful of the games I project. Those bets are Backdoor Cover Picks, and each one comes with a recommended unit size.
My track record is on the Track Record page.